Leading Beyond Assumptions: The Ladder of Inference

A few months ago, I coached a leader who was certain her team was texting each other during meetings. Not just a hunch, she was convinced. The evidence? Two team members were quiet. That’s it. That was the memo. 

Here’s what the mental leap looked like in the real world:

• Data: Two team members are quiet during a meeting.

• Belief: They’re disengaged and probably planning their post-work happy hour meeting without her.

• Action: The leader gets resentful and starts micromanaging. Everyone loses.

The Problem with Fast Thinking

When pressure is high, leaders do what we’re biologically programmed to do: make snap judgments. (You can thank your amygdala for that). We grab onto the first piece of data, slap a meaning on it, and boom - we’ve climbed the Ladder of Inference faster than a kid on a playground sugar high.

The Ladder of Inference is a concept from organizational theorist Chris Argyris, and it explains how we go from observing a thing to creating a full-blown story in our heads, usually without realizing we’ve left the ground.

This fast thinking has a purpose. You didn’t get where you are by zoning out in meetings and floating through your calendar like a breeze. You got there by noticing patterns, connecting dots, and acting fast.

But here’s where it backfires:

• Your team stops talking. 

• Innovation stalls. 

• Conversations start to feel like déjà vu with a soundtrack of “Didn’t we already talk about this?”

And you, despite your expertise, start feeling isolated in your own office, wondering why no one’s telling you the truth.

Why This Series, and Why Now

In my recent series on resilience, we looked at how our reactions shape our results. This series, Leading Beyond Assumptions, picks up that thread. Because once you become aware of the automatic stories you’re telling yourself (and acting on), you can actually stop climbing the ladder and start getting curious.

That’s the superpower of a great leader. Not having all the answers, but knowing when your assumptions might be tripping you up.

Want a quick visual to see this in action? Check out this YouTube short by @Valerian - a great 60-second explainer on how your brain loves to jump to conclusions and sabotage your day before 9 a.m.

 The Ladder of Inference: How to Ruin Your Day in 5 Easy Steps 

Do you have a ladder story? Let’s chat about it in the comments.